Another late post.
Four two-year-old races today. I’m not looking at the juvenile nursery races as I find them a distraction and, sometimes, a very frustrating race type. So last year I decided to give them a miss as they can take a lot of time to assess and appreciated, which, in my opinion, isn’t time well spent. They are a race medium from the highest to lowest grade. I consider if you can’t work out the chances of a horse running in a maiden then you have little hope of tipping a winner in a nursery race.
Each to their own.
Anyway, let’s take a quick look at today’s proceedings.
1:15 Catterick –
Many punters will be looking at Russelinthebushes as a certainty. It might win but I won’t be betting on it. Why? Because from experience when a half-talented horse is dropped in plating class it is a sign of disaster. There might be a slight difference between selling and claiming races. I wouldn’t be betting at about even money that’s for sure. To be honest, I wouldn’t bet in this race unless I could get about 4/1 on Black Hill Storm. That’s not going to happen. However, I do feel Evan’s runner, who has won and raced well at this grade, is here because that’s where he should be and fighting for a winning chance rather than the slightly desperate look of Tom Dacombe’s charge. Neither look much value at the prices so I will be watching.
2:30 Yarmouth –
In an ideal world, I’d be at Yarmouth races today. However, things haven’t gone to plan over the last two weeks and I’m at home. This race is interesting. Eve Lodge is a talented filly for Charlie Fellowes and she should enjoy this faster going. She won well on her second start and wasn’t disgraced at Royal Ascot when contesting the Albany Stakes (Group 3). She carries a penalty but odds-on here. She’s clearly up to racing at Group class so this banded race may be easy pickings for her even carrying a win penalty. She is a naturally speedy type and held in high regard by connections. It’s probably a matter of whether the penalty is enough to slow her down a length or two. Most two-year-olds that are fancied in the betting, carrying a penalty, run well. Clearly being odds-on the bookies are hardly giving anything away. This could well be a stepping stone to better races. She has been earmarked for the Lowther Stakes (Group).
I have half an eye on Hugo Palmer’s Crocodile Tears as an each-way alternative. The bookmakers are going to be giving anything away. If betting, you’d have to do so on the exchanges as the win market will possibly offer much bigger odds. The place is about even money. This daughter of Bungle Inthejungle ran ok on debut at Bath. Her level of form compared to the favourite is lacking. However, she should improve for that debut effort and if fancied in the betting has decent each way claims. You may be looking to get your money back rather than winning (which is never a good bet) but she holds some chance of running a race. I’d be hoping she drifts to about 10/1 on the exchanges and cover the place. If that doesn’t happen, I’d just watch.
I can’t see Ye Gud Thing doing much even though Mohammed Moubarak does well at the course. I think she will be outpaced and running on. If betting, you would be wise to do so in running as I’m sure you will get bigger odds. Although I can’t see her winning.
Adnaan ran ok her eon debut and showed decent pace when stepping up to 6f on his second start. This son of Ardad is well owned and trained. Not the easiest of horses to assess in ways and may be one that flatters to deceive. He’s about 20/1 on the exchanges and you may just about get 11/4 for a place so you wouldn’t need too much cash to hope he hits the frame (no lose bet) and hoping for the win. Who knows? That’s why you might be betting on a 20/1 shot because it has some chance and could be worth a small each way bet at speculative odds.
Winning and losing on the horses is all about value. If you don’t have that on side you will be struggling whatever the case.
Conclusion: I would fear the favourite but wouldn’t be betting at those odds. I’d have to look for an each way alternative such as Crocodile Tears (they may be a punters) or Adnaan as a bit of a speculative poke. I would definitely need 10/1+ on the exchanges if betting on Palmer’s horse. Adnaan is one of those horses with a glimmer of hope at odds but just might prove a frustrating option.
3:20 Lingfield –
Profound Alexander is held in some regard by William Muir and Chris Grassick (naming of trainers is getting longer). She has a decent level of form, likes the going and these banded races don’t, usually, take that much winning. The downside, there is little value. I’m not keen betting at short odds because it can be a frustrating way to make money. I do think she will take some beating though.
Brett Johnson doesn’t have many two-year-olds and Damascus Finish is a nice looking gelding. It surprised me reading the race comments for the Racing Post than no one mention how keep he was over 7f last time out on this course. It was a miracle he lasted as long as he did. This drop back in distance should help and I would respect his chances. This March foal has been well backed. I can’t see much value at 15/8 but I would like to see him go well for the stable.
Brilliant News looked a bit disappointing last time although the form of that race has worked out quite well. However, I do think this colt will struggle to win although possible.
5:45 Kempton –
Philosophy is held in high regard by Simon & Ed Crisford. This son of Exceed And Excel is no price but should take some beating. There may be each-way alternative in Lady Fantasia for Roger Varian. This bay filly was fancied to go well on debut but the stable has been really struggling with its juveniles this year which does bring some concerns. If fancied in the betting would hold very good claims. Spiceline showed promise on debut and looked a touch disappointing but it may have been the case it was a very good race.
Couldn’t bet in this race although will be surprised if Philosophy doesn’t win.